![]() As long as the bias distortion is reasonable, the hindsight bias can lead to an increase in confidence and performance, giving us assurance in our own decision-making so we don’t experience choice paralysis in the future. The hindsight bias has positive and negative consequences. It is currently unknown which model accounts for most of the times we fall prey to the hindsight bias, though it is suspected all three models play a role in combination. We go back in time, following the chain of events, selectively retrieving memories that seem to logically be connected, which can give us the false sentiment that the outcome was inevitable. Causal model theory (CMT) - When there is a discrepancy between a person’s expectations and the reality of an event, we tend to try to explain the outcome through cause reasoning. ![]() Similarly, when asked to evaluate the probability of an event in hindsight, we can’t help but use our current knowledge to determine the best answer and update our knowledge base.ģ. Based on that knowledge, we “take the best” answer and reconstruct our memories accordingly. If you have only seen romantic movies about Paris, you may perceive it as less populous. If you have visited, you may perceive it as more populous. For instance, if you are asked whether Paris has 1 million or 2 million inhabitants, your answer will be influenced by how much you know about Paris. Reconstruction after feedback with “take the best” (RAFT) - A by-product of adaptive learning, this model is based on the way we evaluate knowledge. So, first, we only reactivate a biased selection of memories, and then we reconstruct these memories to fit the new anchor.Ģ. The current information about the event acts as a memory anchor, which then impacts the reactivated memories, and alters them. When they are asked to recall an event later, they use that biased selection of memories to support their own opinions about the event. Selective activation and reconstructive anchoring (SARA) - People can only remember small, select amounts of information. ![]() To understand the cognitive processes behind the hindsight bias, researchers have created three separate models.ġ. The hindsight bias is likely to be caused by many connected processes rather than one single factor. It’s the typical “I knew it!” we hear so often in conversations. Linked to distortions of our memories, the hindsight bias causes us to think we knew how an event would unfold, even before the event happened. Historians and physicians alike are constantly fighting an invisible beast: the hindsight bias, also known as creeping determinism, which is the tendency for people to perceive past outcomes as having been more predictable than they actually were.
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